Risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases and comparison of two prediction models

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dc.contributor.authorCharles, Nsanzaberaen_US
dc.contributor.authorDaniel, Nyamongo Sagween_US
dc.contributor.authorMarcel, Ndengoen_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-06T09:52:56Z
dc.date.available2020-05-06T09:52:56Z
dc.date.issued2020-02
dc.description.abstractBackground: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the world leading causes of death in non-communicable diseases. The aim of this study is to predict cardiovascular risk and compare two prediction models.Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 440 sample size of beverage industrial participants. The 10-year prediction was processed by World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) score chart and Framingham general risk score. WHO stepwise questionnaire and biomedical forms was used. Data was collected and analyzed by SPSS 16.0 version.Results: The overall CVD low risk prediction (<10%) by Framingham general risk score (FGRS) and WHO/ISH score chart was 74.5%, 95.4%, respectively while the CVD elevated risk (≥10%) was 25.5%, 4.6%, respectively. Gender CVD risk (≥10%) was 16.1% of male versus 9.3% of female by FGRS while 2.7% of male versus 1.5% of female classified by WHO/ISH. CVD risk increases in both of the models with age but very much in FGRS. 8.4% of employees versus 5.2% of spouses was classified as having the risk of 10-20% by FGRS while WHO/ISH classified 2.5% of employees and 0.9% of spouses as having the risk of 10-20%. FGRS classified 11.7% of all participant as having the risk above 20% while WHO/ISH classified only 1% as having the risk above 20%. Two model’s kappa agreement level was fair or minimal interrater reliability with 0.25 with p value <0.001 and the correlated receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve of FGRS and WHO/ISH of 0.887 area under the curve (AUC), 0.847AUC all with a p value <0.001, respectively.Conclusions: FGRS predicted more risk in participants than WHO/ISH and was with minimal kappa agreement.en_US
dc.identifier.affiliationsDepartment of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Kenyaen_US
dc.identifier.affiliationsSchool of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Kenyaen_US
dc.identifier.affiliationsDepartment of Mathematics, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwandaen_US
dc.identifier.citationCharles Nsanzabera, Daniel Nyamongo Sagwe, Marcel Ndengo. Risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases and comparison of two prediction models. International Journal of Community Medicine and Public Health. 2020 Feb; 7(2): 455-462en_US
dc.identifier.issn2394-6032
dc.identifier.issn2394-6040
dc.identifier.placeIndiaen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://imsear.searo.who.int/handle/123456789/202098
dc.languageenen_US
dc.publisherMedip Academyen_US
dc.relation.issuenumber2en_US
dc.relation.volume7en_US
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20200414en_US
dc.subjectCardiovascular prediction modelsen_US
dc.subjectCardiovascular risken_US
dc.subjectStrokeen_US
dc.subjectHeart failureen_US
dc.subjectPeripheral vascular diseasesen_US
dc.subjectMyocardial infarctionen_US
dc.titleRisk prediction of cardiovascular diseases and comparison of two prediction modelsen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
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