Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand

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dc.contributor.authorMeeyai, Aronrag
dc.contributor.authorCooper, Ben
dc.contributor.authorCoker, Richard
dc.contributor.authorPan-ngum, Wirichada
dc.contributor.authorAkarasewi, Pasakorn
dc.contributor.authorIamsirithaworn, Sopon
dc.date.accessioned2012-02-22T04:44:34Z
dc.date.available2012-02-22T04:44:34Z
dc.date.issued2012-02
dc.description.abstractBackground: Developing a quantitative understanding of pandemic influenza dynamics in South-East Asia is important for informing future pandemic planning. Hence, transmission dynamics of influenza A/H1N1 were determined across space and time in Thailand. Methods: Dates of symptom onset were obtained for all daily laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A/H1N1pdm in Thailand from 3 May 2009 to 26 December 2010 for four different geographic regions (Central, North, North-East, and South). These data were analysed using a probabilistic epidemic reconstruction, and estimates of the effective reproduction number, R(t), were derived by region and over time. Results: Estimated R(t) values for the first wave peaked at 1.54 (95% CI: 1.42-1.71) in the Central region and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.38-1.92) in the North, whilst the corresponding values in the North-East and the South were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17-1.46) and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.32-1.45) respectively. As the R(t) in the Central region fell below one, the value of R(t) in the rest of Thailand increased above one. R(t) was above one for 30 days continuously through the first wave in all regions of Thailand. During the second wave R(t) was only marginally above one in all regions except the South. Conclusions: In Thailand, the value of R(t) varied by region in the two pandemic waves. Higher R(t) estimates were found in Central and Northern regions in the first wave. Knowledge of regional variation in transmission potential is needed for predicting the course of future pandemics and for analysing the potential impact of control measures.en_US
dc.identifier.citationWHO South-East Asia Journal of Public Health 2012;1(1):59-68en_US
dc.identifier.issn22243151
dc.identifier.urihttps://imsear.searo.who.int/handle/123456789/137217
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWHO Regional Office for South-East Asiaen_US
dc.rightsWHO Regional Office for South-East Asiaen_US
dc.source.urihttps://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/SEAJPH_SEAJPH-1-8.pdfen_US
dc.subjectReproduction numberen_US
dc.subjectPandemicen_US
dc.subjectInfluenzaen_US
dc.subjectH1N1en_US
dc.subjectThailanden_US
dc.titlePandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailanden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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