Predicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: assessing the impact of control strategies.

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dc.contributor.authorNishiura, Hiroshien_US
dc.contributor.authorPatanarapelert, Koten_US
dc.contributor.authorTang, I Mingen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-05-27T14:36:10Z
dc.date.available2009-05-27T14:36:10Z
dc.date.issued2004-09-04en_US
dc.descriptionThe Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe purposes of this study are to predict the future trend of drug-sensitive and resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Thailand, and to assess the impact of different control strategies on the generation of drug resistant TB, through the use of mathematical analysis. We assume that the present status of TB and the emergence of drug-resistant TB in Thailand are the consequence of past epidemics. Control strategies in the model are defined by specifying the value of the effective treatment rate (baseline value = 0.74) and the relative treatment efficacy (baseline value = 0.84). It is predicted that the total number of new TB cases would continue to decrease at the current level of intervention. Although a dramatic decline in the incidence rate of drug-sensitive cases is expected, drug-resistant cases are predicted to increase gradually, so that more than half of the TB strains would not be drug-sensitive after 2020. The prediction is not greatly altered by improving the interventions. They could, however, delay the emergence of drug-resistant strains for a few years. Our study demonstrates it would be impossible to avoid the continued emergence of drug-resistant TB in the future. It is pointed out that there are urgent needs to ensure adequate supervision and monitoring, to insure treatment of 100% of the targeted population with Directly Observed Therapy.en_US
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. Nishiurah@aol.comen_US
dc.identifier.citationNishiura H, Patanarapelert K, Tang IM. Predicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: assessing the impact of control strategies. The Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health. 2004 Sep; 35(3): 649-56en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://imsear.searo.who.int/handle/123456789/30574
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.source.urihttps://www.tm.mahidol.ac.th/seameo/2004_35_3/27-3243.pdfen_US
dc.subject.meshAntibiotics, Antitubercular --pharmacologyen_US
dc.subject.meshChemopreventionen_US
dc.subject.meshCommunicable Disease Controlen_US
dc.subject.meshDirectly Observed Therapyen_US
dc.subject.meshDrug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterialen_US
dc.subject.meshForecastingen_US
dc.subject.meshHumansen_US
dc.subject.meshIncidenceen_US
dc.subject.meshModels, Theoreticalen_US
dc.subject.meshMycobacterium tuberculosis --drug effectsen_US
dc.subject.meshRifampin --pharmacologyen_US
dc.subject.meshThailand --epidemiologyen_US
dc.subject.meshTuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant --drug therapyen_US
dc.titlePredicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: assessing the impact of control strategies.en_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
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