FORECASTING THE MONTHLY INCIDENCE RATE OF PNEUMONIA IN MAE HONG SON PROVINCE, THAILAND
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2010-02-15
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Chiang Mai Medical Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemic patterns of communityacquiredpneumonia (CAP) incidence by month, district and age group for Mae Hong Son,the north- western border province of Thailand. The results may subsequently be appliedto geographical epidemiologic research for the spatial-temporal mapping of diseases. Thiswill facilitate data linkage to population demographic statistics as they become available.This study was a cross-sectional hospital-based survey of all cases of the disease, providedby the Provincial Health Offi ce in Mae Hong Son province. The sample comprised allsuch data collected from 1999 to 2005. The model used was the linear regression timeseries to forecast the districts and age groups where epidemics are likely to occur in thenear future, in order to aid in disease prevention. The model contains additive effectsassociated with the season of the year, district, age group, and the pneumonia incidencerates in previous months, and it can be used to provide useful short-term forecasts. Havinga model that provides such forecasts of disease outbreaks, even if based purely on statisticaldata analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.We found that the largest residual obtained for Mae Hong Son was 2.00 – corresponding to5 cases reported among the 5- to 14-year-old age group – in Pang Ma Pha district in April,1999 (an incidence rate of 2.76 per 1,000). The pneumonia transmission rate in Mae HongSon province during the study period was relatively low from January to June of each year.Chiang Mai Medical Journal 2009;48(3):85-94
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Chiang Mai Medical Journal; Vol.48 No.3 Setember 2009 (pages 77 - 124); 85-94