Kembhavi, Ravindra S.U. S., Saurabha2020-05-062020-05-062019-05Kembhavi Ravindra S., U. S. Saurabha. Time series analysis of dengue cases reporting to a tertiary care hospital. International Journal of Community Medicine and Public Health. 2019 May; 6(5): 2200-22052394-60322394-6040http://imsear.searo.who.int/handle/123456789/201413Background: Dengue fever is a major public health problem, the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change. Methods: This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in a tertiary care hospital in the city of Mumbai. Data of Dengue cases and climate for the city of Mumbai between 2011 and 2015 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS- time series analysis and forecasting model. Results: 33% cases belonged to the 21-30 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. A strong correlation was noted between the total number of cases reported and (a) mean monthly rainfall and (b) number of days of rainfall. ARIMA model was used for forecasting. Conclusions: The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead.DengueTime seriesForecastSeasonal trendClimate changeJournal ArticleIndiaDepartment of Community Medicine, Seth G S Medical College and KEM Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India