Risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases and comparison of two prediction models
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Date
2020-02
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Medip Academy
Abstract
Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the world leading causes of death in non-communicable diseases. The aim of this study is to predict cardiovascular risk and compare two prediction models.Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 440 sample size of beverage industrial participants. The 10-year prediction was processed by World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) score chart and Framingham general risk score. WHO stepwise questionnaire and biomedical forms was used. Data was collected and analyzed by SPSS 16.0 version.Results: The overall CVD low risk prediction (<10%) by Framingham general risk score (FGRS) and WHO/ISH score chart was 74.5%, 95.4%, respectively while the CVD elevated risk (≥10%) was 25.5%, 4.6%, respectively. Gender CVD risk (≥10%) was 16.1% of male versus 9.3% of female by FGRS while 2.7% of male versus 1.5% of female classified by WHO/ISH. CVD risk increases in both of the models with age but very much in FGRS. 8.4% of employees versus 5.2% of spouses was classified as having the risk of 10-20% by FGRS while WHO/ISH classified 2.5% of employees and 0.9% of spouses as having the risk of 10-20%. FGRS classified 11.7% of all participant as having the risk above 20% while WHO/ISH classified only 1% as having the risk above 20%. Two model’s kappa agreement level was fair or minimal interrater reliability with 0.25 with p value <0.001 and the correlated receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve of FGRS and WHO/ISH of 0.887 area under the curve (AUC), 0.847AUC all with a p value <0.001, respectively.Conclusions: FGRS predicted more risk in participants than WHO/ISH and was with minimal kappa agreement.
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Keywords
Cardiovascular prediction models, Cardiovascular risk, Stroke, Heart failure, Peripheral vascular diseases, Myocardial infarction
Citation
Charles Nsanzabera, Daniel Nyamongo Sagwe, Marcel Ndengo. Risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases and comparison of two prediction models. International Journal of Community Medicine and Public Health. 2020 Feb; 7(2): 455-462