Projected Changes in the Dynamics of Flood Hazard in the Grand River Basin, Canada.
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Date
2015-01
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Abstract
In this study future flooding frequencies have been estimated for the Grand River catchment
located in south-western Ontario, Canada. Historical and future climatic projections made by fifteen
Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-3 climate models are bias-corrected and downscaled
before they are used to obtain mid- and end of 21st century streamflow projections. By comparing
the future projected and historically observed precipitation and temperature records it is found that
the mean and extreme temperature events will intensify in future across the catchment. The
increase is more drastic in the case of extreme events than the mean events. The sign of change
in future precipitation is uncertain. Further flow extremes are expected to increase in magnitude
and frequency in future across the catchment. The confidence in the projection is more for low
return period (<10 years) extreme events than higher return period (10-100 years) events. It can be
expected that increases in temperature will play a dominant role in increasing the magnitude of low
return period flooding events while precipitation seems to play an important role in shaping the high
return period events.
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Keywords
Flooding, climate change, Grand River, Brantford
Citation
Gaur Abhishek, Simonovic Slobodan P. Projected Changes in the Dynamics of Flood Hazard in the Grand River Basin, Canada. British Journal of Environment and Climate Change. 2015 Jan-Mar; 5(1): 37-51.