Simulation and Validation of Cisco Habitat in Minnesota Lakes Using the Lethal-Niche Boundary Curve.
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Date
2014-10
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Abstract
Fish survival in lakes is strongly influenced by water temperature and dissolved oxygen
(DO) concentration. A one-dimensional (vertical) lake water quality model MINLAKE 2012
was calibrated in 23 Minnesota lakes and used to simulate daily water temperature and
DO concentrations in 36 representative lake types under past (1992–2008) climate
conditions and a future climate scenario (MIROC 3.2). The 36 representative Minnesota
lake types were developed based on three maximum depths (Hmax = 4, 13, and 24 m),
three surface areas (As = 0.2, 1.7, 10 km2), and four Secchi depths (SD = 1.2, 2.5, 4.5,
and 7 m, from eutrophic to oligotrophic lake). A fish habitat model using the lethal-niche- boundary curve of adult cisco (Coregnous artedi, a cold-water fish species) was then
developed to evaluate cisco oxythermal habitat and survival in Minnesota lakes.The fish
habitat model was validated in the 23 Minnesota lakes of which 18 had cisco mortality
while 5 had no cisco mortality in the unusually warm summer of 2006. Cisco lethal and
habitable conditions in the 23 lakes simulated by the model had anoverall good
agreement with observations in 2006. After model validation, cisco lethal days in the 36
lake types were modeled using simulated daily temperature and DO profiles from
MINLAKE2012. Polymictic shallow lakes with lake geometry ratio As
0.25/Hmax> 5.2 m-0.5
were simulated to typically not support cisco oxythermal habitat under past climate
conditions and the future climate scenario. Medium-depth lakes are projected to be most
vulnerable to climate warming with most increase in the number of years with cisco kill
(average increase 13 years out of 17 simulation years). Strongly stratified mesotrophic
and oligotrophic deep lakes are possible to support cisco habitat under both past and
future climate conditions, and these deep lakes are good candidates for cisco refuge
lakes that should be protected against water quality deteriorations.
Description
Keywords
Fish habitat model, cisco, lake water quality model, climate change
Citation
Fang Xing, Jiang Liping, Jacobson Peter C, Fang Nancy Z. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Habitat in Minnesota Lakes Using the Lethal-Niche Boundary Curve. British Journal of Environment and Climate Change. 2014 Oct-Dec; 4(4): 444-470.