Impact Assessment of Hydrology and Water Quality in the Saugahatchee Creek under Projected Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios Using WARMF.
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Date
2014-10
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Abstract
The hydrology and water quality of a stream or reservoir can be affected due to rapid
urbanization and land use change in its watershed. Climate change, if it occurs, is likely
to have additional impacts on hydrology and water quality of the watershed system. In
this study, a watershed model WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management
Framework) was applied to the Saugahatchee Creek Watershed which includes two
stream branches that were listed on State of Alabama’s 303(d) list of impaired water for
nutrients and organic enrichment/dissolved oxygen. WARMF model for the Saugahatchee Creek Watershed was developed and model calibration and validation
were performed. The model was then used to investigate hydrologic and water quality
response to two different land use scenarios (LU 2009 and LU 2030) and four statistically
downscaled future climate scenarios derived from Canadian Global Coupled Model
(CGCM3) and Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3). Temperature, dissolved
oxygen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and algal concentration were the water quality
parameters simulated along with flow. Based on monthly average of daily predicted
values, the effect due to land use change was not significant except for nutrient
concentration. The monthly average of daily total phosphorus concentration for LU 2030
is predicted to increase up to 72% more than baseline (LU 2009) under past climate
conditions (1981–2010). Based on model results, the monthly average of daily surface
water temperature is predicted to rise for all future climate scenarios. The monthly
average of daily flow is predicted to increase corresponding to CGCM3 (annual average
increase of 88%) and decrease corresponding to HadCM3 scenarios (annual average
decrease of -49%). Accordingly, nutrient concentration is expected to decrease
corresponding to CGCM3 and increase corresponding to HadCM3 scenarios. DO
concentration are predicted to fall up to 2.3 mg/l (monthly average), especially in summer
for the four climate scenarios. Combined land use and climate change scenarios cause
the increase in nutrient concentrations for future land use and climate scenarios (e.g.,
annual TP from 0.082 mg/l for the baseline to 0.203 mg/l for HadCM3 A2 20s scenario).
Chlorophyll-a concentration during the growing season is expected to increase to 25.8
and 26.3 μg/l under HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios due to combined effect, respectively,
in comparison to 18 μg/l for the baseline (1981–2010 and LU2009). The results of this
study can be incorporated into watershed management and planning strategies.
Description
Keywords
Hydrology, water quality, land use change, climate change, Saugahatchee, WARMF
Citation
Shrestha Sushban, Fang Xing, Sawant Rajesh, Marzen Luke J. Impact Assessment of Hydrology and Water Quality in the Saugahatchee Creek under Projected Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios Using WARMF. British Journal of Environment and Climate Change. 2014 Oct-Dec; 4(4): 360-388.