Statistical Prediction Model for Relapse Rate in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients Treated with Conventional Interferon and Ribavirin Therapy.
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Date
2011-07
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Abstract
Objective: To determine the significantly associated factors with the relapse rate in
chronic hepatitis C patients treated with conventional interferon and their predictive
strength through the regression model.
Material & Methods: In a retrospective analysis of 244 patients, result of PCR, gender,
fatty liver, diabetes, abnormal ALT at start and end of treatment were the qualitative
variables. Age, weight, ALT at start and end of treatment, hemoglobin, platelets and
WBC at start of treatment were quantitative variables. Bivariate, multivariate analysis and
odds ratio were computed to verify statistically significant association with relapse rate by
running binary logistic regression model.
Results: Out of total 244 patients there were 54.1% male and 45.9% female. Eighty two
(33.6%) patients had weight > 70 Kg, 30 (12.3%) had fatty liver, 18 were (7.4%) diabetic,
12 (4.9%) had normal ALT at start of therapy and 140 (57.4%) had abnormal ALT at the
end. Eighty four (34.4%) patients relapsed while 160 (65.6%) maintained SVR after 6
month to 2 years of completion. In bivariate analysis, age, weight, fatty liver, high fever,
decrease and increase in Hb were found significant. The binary logistic regression
revealed the significant association of weight (OR=84.813; p=0.000), high fever
(OR=4.478; p= 0.038) and Hb increase at 1st month (OR=0.037; p=0.013) with relapse
rate. Nagelkerke R Square and Cox & Snell R Square statistics explained 71.1% and
51.1% variation in the model respectively and 93.1% area under the curve gave it very
good prediction strength.
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Keywords
HCV, End of Treatment Response, Relapse rate, Interferon therapy, Logistic Regression, Odds ratio, ROC
Citation
Irfan Muhammad, Nadeem Muhammad Arif, Mirza Huda Ghulam, Ghias Muhammad, Mohsin Aftab, Muttee Mutee Ullah Khan. Statistical Prediction Model for Relapse Rate in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients Treated with Conventional Interferon and Ribavirin Therapy. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research. 2011 July; 1(3): 122-131.