Simulating the Impact of Drought on California’s Central Valley Hydrology Groundwater and Cropping.
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Date
2013-07
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Abstract
This paper describes an efficient methodology to link a comprehensive, distributed
hydrologic model for California’s Central Valley to a crop production model. The resulting
hydro-economic model allows for the dynamic calculation of crop acreages in response to
water availability without simplifying groundwater or stream flow dynamics by the
assumption of linearity or by resorting to a lumped-parameter approach.
The linked hydro-economic model is used to simulate the effects of several drought
scenarios on Central Valley’s agriculture and the groundwater resources. The drought
scenarios are constructed as surface flow reductions that range from 30% to 70% for
periods spanning from 10 to 60 years, with a 10-year spin-up and a 30-year recovery.
The main finding is that Central Valley agriculture as a whole is resilient to severe
Description
Keywords
Drought, hydro-economic model, groundwater, hydrology, crop acreage, subsidence, California Central Valley
Citation
Dale Larry L, Dogrul Emin C, Brush Charles F, Kadir Tariq N, Chung Francis I, Miller Norman L, Vicuna Sebastian D. Simulating the Impact of Drought on California’s Central Valley Hydrology Groundwater and Cropping. British Journal of Environment and Climate Change. 2013 Jul-Sep; 3(3): 271-291.